The rapid growth of the EV (electric vehicle) market has driven the development, manufacture, and sales of batteries, especially lithium-ion batteries. Now, the next phase of EV development is bringing heightened interest in solid-state batteries, attracting the attention of an increasing number of material providers, battery vendors, component suppliers, automotive OEMs, and investors. Solid-state battery development is happening across the board and in both academia and industry.
With an increasing number of players working in this field and some milestones being achieved, the research consultancy experts at IDTechEx believe the solid-state battery market is expected to grow to $8 billion by 2031, according to its new report “Solid-State and Polymer Batteries 2021-2031: Technology, Forecasts, Players,” authored by Dr. Xiaoxi He, Principal Analyst at IDTechEx.
One of the earlier pioneers in solid-state batteries was SES, which has gotten a lot of support from General Motors since 2015. The report’s authors also singled out that year, providing a little context and recent history in the space. Volkswagen took a 5% stake in QuantumScape, Dyson acquired Sakti3, Bosch acquired SEEO, and Johnson Battery Technologies sold its solid-state battery business to BP.
Although in 2017, Bosch gave up on SEEO and was selling the company, and Dyson abandoned the technologies of Sakti3, the overall interest in solid-state batteries never waned. Ford, Samsung, and Hyundai invested in Solid Power. The latter also partnered with BMW. Renault, Mitsubishi, and Nissan invested in Ionic Materials.
In 2020, newly developed solid-state batteries based on the argyrodite electrolyte came from Samsung. VW invested another $200 million in QuantumScape. Honda, Fisker, Panasonic, and CATL also got into the solid-state game.
One of the main drivers behind the move to solid-state batteries is safety-related. Flammable liquid electrolytes in most commercial lithium-ion batteries are considered a safety risk as they can easily shrink under high temperatures, leading to short circuits and potentially fires. Replacing organic liquid electrolytes in solid-state batteries enable safer, longer-lasting batteries. Greater safety means there is less need for safety monitoring electronics in the battery modules/packs.
With the larger electrochemical window that the solid electrolytes provide, higher voltage cathode materials can be used. In addition, high-energy-density lithium metal anodes can further push energy density beyond 1000 Wh/L.
These features can further make the solid-state battery a game-changer, believe IDTechEx researchers.
The East Asia region has dominated in lithium-ion battery manufacturing, with Japan, China, and South Korea playing significant roles. However, U.S. and European countries are beginning to compete better in the race, building battery manufacturing closer to the application market. One example is the huge capacity built by Tesla/Panasonic in the U.S. and Northvolt’s work in Europe. New materials and changes in manufacturing processes are beginning to reshuffle the battery supply chain.
From both technology and business points of view, the development of solid-state batteries has become part of next-generation battery strategies. It has become more of a global game, with regional interest and governmental support growing. Opportunities will be available with new materials, components, systems, manufacturing methods, and know-how.
IDTechEx experts say that the market demand for solid-state batteries mainly comes from electric vehicles. However, energy storage systems, and consumer electronics such as smartphones, tablets, laptops, are also target markets.
Analysis of company solid-state battery mass production plans shows that activity will begin in Japan around 2025-2030, in Europe around 2025-2026, and even earlier in mainland China and Taiwan around 2022-2023.
So, the solid-state battery will likely take off after 2025, although small-scale production may happen even earlier. By 2031, the car plug-in market will take the largest share (66%), followed by smartphone applications.
Trends will be heavily driven by the EV market, with regional convenience an important consideration for the next stage of commercialization. This is especially the case based on the current situation with COVID-19 affecting consumers’ purchasing decisions, lifestyle, and influencing globalization.
All this will lead to further consolidation and partnerships, and it is highly likely that new solid-state battery manufacturing sites will be located near the EVs’ application markets. However, startups far away from the application markets tend to license their technologies, rather than building manufacturing sites locally.
The IDTechEX report’s coverage has a special focus on what the authors expect to be the winning chemistries, with a full analysis of the eight inorganic solid electrolytes and the organic polymer electrolytes. The report also covers the manufacturing challenges related to solid electrolytes and how large companies try to address those limitations.
A study of lithium metal as a strategic resource is also presented, highlighting the strategic distribution of materials around the world and the roles they will play in solid-state batteries. Some chemistries will be quite lithium-hungry and put a strain on mining companies worldwide.
For more information on this report, visit www.IDTechEx.com/SSB.
